Will not post for awhile. I am still in LC/B and BHI and CHF. Good luck on your trades.
Will update my programs for a better trading.
Disclaimer: This is a legal notice. Please read it carefully in its entirety. It is your responsibility to understand this notice. If you do not understand it, please seek the assistance of a competent advisor.The content in Trend Follower is for educational purpose only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. My opinion is subject to change without notice. Trend Follower will not accept any responsibility or be liable for any investment decisions based on the information discussed here.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
From My Diary
Another Green Signal
How timely could that be.
Funny this Hapons, when they asked for forgiveness, they bow a hundred times from your table to the door and I have to acknowledge by bowing a hundred times too, distracting me from my trading.
:-)
How I Timed USD/CHF
August 9 was the crucial time for USD CHF short side. I was short on these since June 2011.
Last August 9, (maybe was lucky) I saw massive buying in 1 minute, 1 hour, in which it has not happen before. It means, it time to get busy. ( Like the DJIA 1 minute chart which I posted before)
When, up trend was confirmed, I was long USD CHF during the sideway period last August 15 and bought additional long positions yesterday until I have no more funds left. Oh my, what a gambler.
That is an immediate signal. All during the progress of the move it had nothing but natural and normal reactions. Then all of a sudden and abnormal reaction occurs-and by “abnormal” I mean a reaction in one day of six or more points from extreme price made in that same day-something it has not done before, and when something happens abnormally stock market wise, it is a flashing you a danger signal which must not be ignored. Livermore
5 Day Dow and Gold Hourly Chart
Gold Leading Indicator?? Gold Bottom last Thrusday while Dow bottom on Friday's closed
Monday, August 29, 2011
The Art of Tape Reading 2, looking back at March 2009 bottom
Volume increases at the bottom March 2009, just look at the volume this week, it is the most significant since 2009.
. When it resumes its advance again in a few days, you will notice that the volume of sales at that time is not nearly as large as it was in the beginning of the move. The stock is becoming harder to buy. Livermore
Fractals??? High volume at the bottom.
The Art of Tape Reading
You must remember, when there is a seller, there is a buyer, otherwise, no trading will occur. Look at the volume when it dropped last August 24 Wednesday, and as posted as the link below, it will just zoom. The number is always equal. ( sellers/buyers)It takes only one buyer of a large amount of stock to drive up the price even though there might be a large number of sellers.
an as mentioned in my reply, happy days are here again.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Saturday, August 27, 2011
The Ghost Month Final 2011
Base on July 29 closed to last August 26.
We start with Blue chips, almost all drop average 10%.
SECB weakest from 19.9% drop 108.5 tp 90.5
Gainers
RCB 7% from 28.55 to 30.7
COL 31.7% from 13.8 to 20.2
Power sector and food the weakest
Property Sector
Only SMDC survive almost unchanged 8.05 to 8.00
Communication sectors
Not much change
Transport.
PAL is amazing despite the labor problem.
CEB down 5% and ICT 7%
Active Mining Sector, all up.
LC 28.5% 1.13 to 1.58
LCB 26.5% 1.22 to 1.66
NI 42.3 % 2.17 to 3.76
Most active Third liner plays
BHI 48.4% from .196 to .38
WPI 34% .087 to .132
So, whose afraid of the Ghost?
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/07/ghost-month.html
Friday, August 26, 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
LCB
LCB drop was scary. But was not the first time, it was the third time. Like any stocks, it has to drop in order to lessen the resistance. Anyway, for those with losing position or wants to take profits, you can sell anytime.
It has always been my experience that I never benefited much from a move if I did not get in somewhere near the beginning of the move. And the reason is that I missed the back log of profit which is very necessary to provide courage and patience to sit through a move until the end comes. And to stay through minor reactions or rallies which were bound to occur from time to time before the movement have been completed its course. Livermore
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
LCB and BHI
"At the first part of the movement of this kind the distance above the previous
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Gainers Today, Loser Tomorrow
Here is an example of Gainers last Monday and Losers on Tuesday. Why, Because there is no volume.
When there is no volume, the bid and ask bids becomes wide, Unlike stock with volume, the Bid and ask price is just one fluc and you can sell it anytime.
So, if you bought a stock without volume on Monday and panic on Tuesday, since there are no buyers at Higher price, then you have to sell it at the market at lower price.
Some traders are also good at this type of trading, the trader must be very patient in order to gain.
Zoom
DJIA just zoom, its been a long time since we have witness this.
P6 tape reading is readable. Blue chips stocks like TEL, BPI, EDC and MER made more than 3% gain, which is significant for a blue chips. But the most significant was AEV at 5%.
Lots of foreign buying in our mining stocks.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Amazing Blue Chips
TEL Jump from 2338 yesterday to 4434, breaking the resistance.
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/08/pure-gold-2.html
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/08/pure-gold-2.html
PURE GOLD 5
Revisiting the 1900 area in juts a day, will it break and visit 2000 area???
It is the first time in ages, that P6 mining stocks, follow the gold charts.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Market Gurus
A market Guru is only good when he is making the right calls, that is why they say, when a trader is making the right calls, join him.
But if a gurus making all the wrong calls, then, expect wrath from the followers. As per Elder saying, Gurus rise and fall.
As I mentioned before, better to trade your own way. Make your own research and test it if it works.
The other problem in which newbies are not aware, when a Guru send his followers a tip to buy, definitely, it can rise. Most of the time, not because of fundies coming in, but because of the tip, that is why it will rise without a volume and the next day, top 10 loser.
Newbies must not jump in to the tip but watch price action and volume.
A trend follower usually buys when the move is underway, we do not catch tops or bottoms. Just follow your rules and protect your capital.
But if a gurus making all the wrong calls, then, expect wrath from the followers. As per Elder saying, Gurus rise and fall.
As I mentioned before, better to trade your own way. Make your own research and test it if it works.
The other problem in which newbies are not aware, when a Guru send his followers a tip to buy, definitely, it can rise. Most of the time, not because of fundies coming in, but because of the tip, that is why it will rise without a volume and the next day, top 10 loser.
Newbies must not jump in to the tip but watch price action and volume.
A trend follower usually buys when the move is underway, we do not catch tops or bottoms. Just follow your rules and protect your capital.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
SFI Getting Technical 2
Was reviewing some charts, just a word of caution. Saw some charts with trend going down, In my opinion, it is risky to bottom fish this way, it may go down or will stay sideways for a long period, ( or go up, who knows ).
But I would select a stock which price has hold for a long period of time then POP, than buy something that is trending down.
But I would select a stock which price has hold for a long period of time then POP, than buy something that is trending down.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Pure Gold 2
Wow! Gold reach 1880 area, looks Like it will test the 2000 area. Good for our favorite LC/B.
Let's see price action confirm it this Monday.
Gold Mining stocks had a good foreign buying last Friday. Also, note worthy, the uptrend in our Blue chips from August 10 2011crashed. BPI, TEL MER PCOR etc. despite a bearish market.
SFI Getting Technical
SFI has been in 0.15 range for a long time from a 2 years high of 0.33 ( almost 50% down and need 100% run up in case you were stuck at 0.33).
Made some spikes last July and back to 0.15 this August.
Just observed the volume after weeks of consolidation, then POP. It is nothing but technical. If you time it correctly you will have a handsome intraday profit.
In this kind of environment, just do not be greedy. 5 to 15% intraday profit is enough. If I held my Boulevard over night, it would have been broken dreams. If you bought and lose, sell immediately, or take a vacation.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
What a Day 2
Probably another Boring day. I was ready to buy the dips. Unfortunately, Most major issues down only 1%,
Far from last week panic in which most stocks gap down in the opening. I'll call it a day.
Happy weekend everyone.
Far from last week panic in which most stocks gap down in the opening. I'll call it a day.
Happy weekend everyone.
What An Exciting Day
Yesterday was boring, Today, as if it is a Bull market. 32 issues pop up intra day and 18 issues closed significantly from yesterdays closed. Unfortunatley, all are third liners. (Except mining stocks, Pure Gold )
Made some intra day profits. I learned this fibo system when I was a newbie and it applies now.
My LC/B, just simply amazing.
Made some intra day profits. I learned this fibo system when I was a newbie and it applies now.
My LC/B, just simply amazing.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
I got A Zeuling 2
Never knew that it would go so far........ (Just singing)
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/08/i-got-zeuling.html
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/08/i-got-zeuling.html
What a Day
It was one of the most boring day. Ghost month maybe? Yes, I remember previous ghost months, very boring, while locals were busy selling, the foreigners were busy buying. NFB 3,164,852,446 vs 2,068,937,063
Been a long time since we hit the 3B foreign buying.
Been a long time since we hit the 3B foreign buying.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
LCB Green Signals
With Gold going re-testing the 1800 resistance today, who knows what will happen? LCB gave green signal when Gold tested the 1800 area on a bearish market.
Foreign buying and selling yesterday is almost equal. NFB 2,002,305,783 and NFS 2,090,054,717
Monday, August 15, 2011
Fear
As expected, my basura picks last week gave a nice profit, unfortunately, my position size does not mean much.
Will make it more meaningful when it happens again. ( WPI, WIN, ZHI )
Have re-entered my favorite stock LC/B.
That is one nice thing if you remove FEAR in your trading, you accept that you do not know where it would lead you. Price action speaks louder than words.
Will make it more meaningful when it happens again. ( WPI, WIN, ZHI )
Have re-entered my favorite stock LC/B.
That is one nice thing if you remove FEAR in your trading, you accept that you do not know where it would lead you. Price action speaks louder than words.
"If trading is boring, easy, effortless and stress free, then you are a good trader. "
M. Douglas
Friday, August 12, 2011
Bear Market 3
After reviewing price action, my old reference point was invalidated, too confusing, If you have just held your stocks which you bought on the first week of June, you could have amazing profits even if you did not sell this week, especially for the third liners.
Move my reference point to the month of August, blue chips recovered significantly if you were able to buy some during the panic.
Blue Chips significant gains from the banking sector was BDO, MBT and SECB.
Power Sector MER and PCOR.
Food SMC
AGI 8% gain from 10.24 to 11.16
Property sector ALI
And all Mining sector.
Problem is, I was not able to buy any. ( only some third liners, for the feel only) I was paralyzed the whole week, I upgraded my system to windows 7 and it gave me nothing but crashes ( computer crash) , anyway, have upgraded my motherboard and processor, and windows 7 worked at last. I am back in business.
The cuts in my diary still valid, will just show it in due time.
Move my reference point to the month of August, blue chips recovered significantly if you were able to buy some during the panic.
Blue Chips significant gains from the banking sector was BDO, MBT and SECB.
Power Sector MER and PCOR.
Food SMC
AGI 8% gain from 10.24 to 11.16
Property sector ALI
And all Mining sector.
Problem is, I was not able to buy any. ( only some third liners, for the feel only) I was paralyzed the whole week, I upgraded my system to windows 7 and it gave me nothing but crashes ( computer crash) , anyway, have upgraded my motherboard and processor, and windows 7 worked at last. I am back in business.
The cuts in my diary still valid, will just show it in due time.
The rationale is that if there is no follow-through in a direction adverse to your position, then there must be some very strong underlying forces in favor of the direction of the original position (since the reasons-fundamental or technical-for your own fears are probably shared by many others in the marketplace). Randy Mckay- Market Wizard
Thursday, August 11, 2011
CHF The Worlds Greatest Currency 3
Nice ride from .835 to .724... That is what trend following is all about. It was down since November but entered in June, and still have 300% profit.
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/07/chf-worlds-greatest-currency-2.htmlBear Market 2
With dow up, maybe i will get a technical rebound. Will not keep it overnite, just to be safe, not unless it is included in the zeeling plays....
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
The Bear Market
Wow, Phisix Up on a bear market. Trying to catch a falling knife using fibo. With DJIA futures up 154 points. Who knows what is next. Do not try if if you do not have time. You can win big time, you can lose big time....
I just read a spam message, asking if I can show my entry and exit " real time"., Sorry, I have done that when I open this blog last November, almost all picks went parabolic. I hate that, that is why I created a secret diary.
( i will not be a secret, if viewers will reach 20 per day)
I just read a spam message, asking if I can show my entry and exit " real time"., Sorry, I have done that when I open this blog last November, almost all picks went parabolic. I hate that, that is why I created a secret diary.
( i will not be a secret, if viewers will reach 20 per day)
Monday, August 8, 2011
From My Diary Posted Last Sunday.
As posted, it will correct further with ZHI standing. How lucky can that be.... Anyway, sold my ZHI.
Have cut some blanks to be shown when the right time arrives.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Bloody Day
It was a bloody day for third liners, Most Blue chips average a 3% drop, only two drop 4% more, that is PNB and SMC from 61.5 to 58.6 or 4.7% and 128.9 to 123.0 or 4.6%
My New Love Zeus, just simply amazing, acts as if all issues were rallying.
AEV was the only Blue chip with a gain and volume, despite a negative news.
From my Diary about AEV posted Last Sunday July 30.
My selling of AP last week is not sad after all, just right on top :-). ( The art of selling on top without even trying). AP, yesterday showed a long white candle after that gap down.
My New Love Zeus, just simply amazing, acts as if all issues were rallying.
AEV was the only Blue chip with a gain and volume, despite a negative news.
From my Diary about AEV posted Last Sunday July 30.
My selling of AP last week is not sad after all, just right on top :-). ( The art of selling on top without even trying). AP, yesterday showed a long white candle after that gap down.
Danger Signal By JL
When I see danger signal handed to me, I don’t argue with it. I get out. A few days later, if everything looks right, I can always get back in again. Thereby I save myself a lot of worry and money. I figure out this way, if I were walking along a railroad track and saw an express train coming at me at sixty miles an hour, I would not be damned fool enough not to get off the track, and let the train go by. After it had passed, I could always get back on the track again, if I desired. I have always remembered that as a graphic bit of speculative wisdom.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
The Trend Follower
It would be nice to see how negative news or Dow will affect a local trending stock. Numbers corresponds to the events below, and percentage was calculated base on the highest price when the event occurred and the date of lowest price when rally resumed.
So, in the chart above, it is obvious, you will not lose much even if Dow corrects big time, as long as you do your research.
A nice 57% gain in two months, as I mentioned before, I was 80% loaded with LCB. Trend is still up for LCB, just watch for danger signals.
ZEUS? I Still have.
1. April 8, possible US Govt. Shut Down DJIAS 12380,
2. May 13, Euro Debt Woes, LCB 6.7% drop from high of 0.93 to 0.87
3. June 9, Economic worries, Bernake speech. 22% drop from 1.13 to 0.92
4. July 14, Ben stimulus talk 7% drop from 1.23 to 1.15
5. July 20, Debt Ceiling issue. 7% drop 1.32 to 1.23
"That there is time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing." - Jesse Livermore
Bears VS Bulls 9
What a run today, 41 issues made significant an intra day , 34 issues made a 4% rise from previous days closed.
Blue Chips RCB 6% , SECB and PNB 4% rise from previous days closed.
My LCB made a good run today, including my I got a Zeuling stocks.
ORE made my day, trend followers does not buy the dips, they can enter a trending stock at any price.
Why? Because they have a plan before they enter, and are very sure that they will follow the plan.
How can you trade if you fear the market. Most traders wants to buy on correction, but when correction comes, they freeze and forgot their plan. Why, because of FEAR, nobody knows how far it will fall. So, fear works 2 ways, fear that it will fall further, ( Was not able to buy on his long awaited correction), and fear that the price is too high.
So, what will happen, normally they buy at the top. Why? Because they are waiting for a sure thing which is non existent in the market.
Blue Chips RCB 6% , SECB and PNB 4% rise from previous days closed.
My LCB made a good run today, including my I got a Zeuling stocks.
ORE made my day, trend followers does not buy the dips, they can enter a trending stock at any price.
Why? Because they have a plan before they enter, and are very sure that they will follow the plan.
How can you trade if you fear the market. Most traders wants to buy on correction, but when correction comes, they freeze and forgot their plan. Why, because of FEAR, nobody knows how far it will fall. So, fear works 2 ways, fear that it will fall further, ( Was not able to buy on his long awaited correction), and fear that the price is too high.
So, what will happen, normally they buy at the top. Why? Because they are waiting for a sure thing which is non existent in the market.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
ORE ORE ORE!
I believe that far more money is made buying high and selling at even higher prices. That means buying stocks that have already had good moves and have high relative strength-that is, stocks in demand by other investors. Richard Driehaus. Market Wizard
DJIA Chronology 2
For the record, added no. 7.
1.Stocks fell posting a sixth straight weekly loss — longest losing streak since the fall of 2002. Jobs data
2. Fears that China is moving to curtail bank
3. Dow below 10,000 thanks to Euro crisis The suffers its biggest ever intraday point drop: 998.5 points
4. Stocks are falling to their lowest level in a month as worries mount over a slowdown in China and a debt crisis in Ireland.
5. Japan Tsunami and Nuclear Problem
6. Greek Debt
7. US Debt default Crisis Aug.2 deadline
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/07/djia-chronology.html
1.Stocks fell posting a sixth straight weekly loss — longest losing streak since the fall of 2002. Jobs data
2. Fears that China is moving to curtail bank
3. Dow below 10,000 thanks to Euro crisis The suffers its biggest ever intraday point drop: 998.5 points
4. Stocks are falling to their lowest level in a month as worries mount over a slowdown in China and a debt crisis in Ireland.
5. Japan Tsunami and Nuclear Problem
6. Greek Debt
7. US Debt default Crisis Aug.2 deadline
http://tracer-tracer.blogspot.com/2011/07/djia-chronology.html
Bears VS Bulls 8
DJIA from March 2009 Low to present.
One thing nice about this sell off, it lessens the selling pressure to create new highs. It just " Pops".
One thing nice about Phisix and Blue chips, it just shed 2 to 3% during this sell off's and just patiently creeping up.
Bears VS Bulls 7
Not a single blue chips below 4% from previous closed, Average down by Blue chips 2%.
GLO went up 3% from 964 to closed at 990.
Third Liners, mostly down big time, still holding my basura stuck, hardly move for the day. Third liners always goes down hard because of liquidity issues, Bid and ask price range is too wide, you will get a heart attack.
That why it is important to analyzed your basura picks, so in case DOW sentiment will drag P6 down, it would not go down hard.
GLO went up 3% from 964 to closed at 990.
Third Liners, mostly down big time, still holding my basura stuck, hardly move for the day. Third liners always goes down hard because of liquidity issues, Bid and ask price range is too wide, you will get a heart attack.
That why it is important to analyzed your basura picks, so in case DOW sentiment will drag P6 down, it would not go down hard.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Bears VS Bulls 6
This is the day the bears are waiting to strike, the big question is, were they able to buy? I guess not.
Was watching some blue chips when it sold down, when barat bids were not huge, fundies posted bids in huge volumes in order that small time players barat bids cannot be done and have to buy up in which the fundies dictates, Oh my, how can you ever win.
Third Liners
When I taught it would be a Blue Chips week, I was wrong, It is a third Liners week. Probably locals sold their Blue chips to a faster Basuras. Anyway, I also sold some of my Blue chips to position in third liners.
I saw that in EVER yesterday, but was not able to execute, I just do not know why. My online broker always reject it. Anyway, day traded some of my extra cash for a handsome profit. Have position for another "I got a ceeling run tomorrow." If you can't beat them, join them, just do not be greedy, you will regret it 95% of the time.
While most locals sold Blue chips, foreigners kept buying, first time I observed this.Only one blue chip in SMC closed more than 2% from previous day. Intra day, not even one have a 4% fluc, but foreign buying was 2,222,240,582 against selling 1,721,530,534.
I saw that in EVER yesterday, but was not able to execute, I just do not know why. My online broker always reject it. Anyway, day traded some of my extra cash for a handsome profit. Have position for another "I got a ceeling run tomorrow." If you can't beat them, join them, just do not be greedy, you will regret it 95% of the time.
While most locals sold Blue chips, foreigners kept buying, first time I observed this.Only one blue chip in SMC closed more than 2% from previous day. Intra day, not even one have a 4% fluc, but foreign buying was 2,222,240,582 against selling 1,721,530,534.
Monday, August 1, 2011
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