In FX, the length of the rise and fall is almost the same, the rise for EUR USD is longer than the fall.although, time frame, it only took an hour to fall that much and almost 8 hours to recover.
Disclaimer: This is a legal notice. Please read it carefully in its entirety. It is your responsibility to understand this notice. If you do not understand it, please seek the assistance of a competent advisor.The content in Trend Follower is for educational purpose only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. My opinion is subject to change without notice. Trend Follower will not accept any responsibility or be liable for any investment decisions based on the information discussed here.
Monday, January 31, 2011
EUR USD long 6
It was a scary fall last Friday, all my gains wipe out in one a few hours. Its good I did not panic. Now it is back to break even. FX trading is very difficult. If my opinion, if you will excel in FX, Stock market would be peanuts.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Trend Follower January 2011 Review
Price Price 28 Jan. Closed Gain/Loss Gain/Loss
First posted Last posted first entry First entry
to last post to 28th closed
CYBR 0.72 1.25 1.22 69% 65%NIKL 17.87 20.64 20.50 14% 12%
LR 6.07 7.85 8.00 26% 28%
*LND (c.o.) 1.57 1.78 2.23 10% 38%
*BEL (c.o.) 4.60 5.70 5.85 21% 24%
LOTO 16.40 17.50 17.50 4% 4%
LPZ 4.69 4.85 4.85 1% 1%
*ELI 0.57 0.62 O.P. For 5 days to 0.84 32% 4%
*PAL 6.77 O.P. For 3 days to 7.94 15% -18%
*PAL 6.77 O.P. For 3 days to 7.94 15% -18%
*PAX 2.07 O.P. Top -10% -10%
Remarks.
(c.o.) Carry over from December post.
O.P. Only post ( False signal, or tsupitero play )
Only 1 missed out (Pax sew ) of 10. ELI and PAL were just tsupitero plays, in my opinion,
but if you play it right and watch for danger signals, you can still profit from greens signals.
The Gain/Loss percent includes brokers fee of 3%, so if you are trading electonically, that is 2% more.
Have tested electronic trading, but it sucks. I am wondering why some blogs were able to buy and sell tops and bottoms. I am fast in encoding but electronic broker is too slow, or do I have to re evaluate my electronic trading system? better a Live broker even if I have to pay more, only minimal delay from my price calculation.
but if you play it right and watch for danger signals, you can still profit from greens signals.
The Gain/Loss percent includes brokers fee of 3%, so if you are trading electonically, that is 2% more.
Have tested electronic trading, but it sucks. I am wondering why some blogs were able to buy and sell tops and bottoms. I am fast in encoding but electronic broker is too slow, or do I have to re evaluate my electronic trading system? better a Live broker even if I have to pay more, only minimal delay from my price calculation.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
LPZ Batchoy 2
Actually green signal was last Jan 25. problem was volume only 635,000, yesterday was 6.5M from Deutch regis. As I have said I will take risk when I see foreign buying, now we have volume and number 12 in the most active list. Just do not forget your stops,
LPZ Batchoy
I have been watching regis accumulating LPZ since yesterday.
only problem is that large block at 4.80 and 4.85, otherwise 4.90 will be the line of least resistance.
Just do not forget your stops.
only problem is that large block at 4.80 and 4.85, otherwise 4.90 will be the line of least resistance.
Just do not forget your stops.
EUR USD long
Not so good entry points but as plan, staying long with EUR USD. As long as the January up trend line not broken..
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
January Disclosure
The rally last Monday was impressive, If it can sustain this week, second round of the bull market. Some stocks showed a green signal with volume. I am 99% in cash, what an opportunity if I am right. You must also remember, green signals is sometimes the TOP, The reason is sometimes, whales jock up the price so they can exit easily with volume, since their positions are too big for the market to swallow. So, just be careful.
I will probe first like FX, when it shows me profit, I enter and watch for danger signals.
I will probe first like FX, when it shows me profit, I enter and watch for danger signals.
USD JPY Short 2
USD JPY after one day. Just do not forget your stops.
Have observed that if you compare the trend of a currency, say USD, if it is in a downtrend against JPY,
it is also the same with other USD pairs. Just my opinion.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Exit Signals
All my signals were hit. I am totally out of the market. I do not argue with the tape.
"A speculator of great genius once told me: “When I see danger signal handed to me, I don’t argue with it. I get out. A few days later, if everything looks right, I can always get back in again. Thereby I save myself a lot of worry and money. I figure out this way, if I were walking along a railroad track and saw an express train coming at me at sixty miles an hour, I would not be damned fool enough not to get off the track, and let the train go buy. After it had passed, I could always get back on the track again, if I desired. I have always remembered that as a graphic bit of speculative wisdom." Livermore
Thursday, January 20, 2011
PAX sew
Pax cup and handle breakout???
Long term chart, must breakout for confirmation.
Gave a green signal even when it was down from previous day, just like APC. Cannot check my program now since I am too busy. Will just let it play.
Just do not forget your stops.
LOTTO han 2
LOTO's 2 year chart shows the highest volume since the beginning. Just do not forget your stops.
BEL ringggggggggggg 9
One thing good in buying New highs, it is the line of least resistance, only few get stuck, only the latest entrants who needs some green behind but was stuck a few handles due to margin callers and profit takers. So, if you study the chart, a black candle appears almost every third day.so the tatsuki debate. Just do not forget your stop, always plan your trade, and trade your plan.
APC
APC Green Signals, this thing has been giving me green signals and I was not able to buy, my hands is full.
I just post this because of one thing that is bugging me. It gave a green signal on the 18th even if it was down from previous days closed. 17 Jan. closed 0.89, 18 Jan closed was 0.84. But still a green signal.
From one of my private mails. "
Re: apc
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Disclosure
Have sold 80% of my cybr from my pyramid, nice ride. Did not like the price action lately. I am heavy on my pyramid in BEL and about 10% of my portfolio is with NIKL. Started probing LOTO.
Third Liners
P6 looks like 2005 to 2007 again when third liners were the favorite of the day. I remember GEO (GEI) .08 to 3.0 run, Ni (MHI) , PAX , MA, etc. etc. It was tsupiteros paradise.
Ceiling play almost in daily basis and automatic replies in the PSE disclosure.
2011 looks the same. So, for newbies and traders, just be careful.
Ceiling play almost in daily basis and automatic replies in the PSE disclosure.
2011 looks the same. So, for newbies and traders, just be careful.
Danger Signals 2
Another sample of danger signals. Intra day Down about 12% with high volume.
"You have had patience to stay with the stock all during its natural progress. Now have the courage and good sense to honor the danger signal and step aside.
I do not say that these danger signals are always correct, as stated before, no rules applying to stock fluctuations are 100% right. But if you pay attention to them consistently, in the long run you will profit immensely." Livermore
CYBR Six 6
My CYBR got some orgasm this morning, down by 6.9%, almost hit my stops. A bearish engulfing candle was form, but one of the criteria for this pattern is high volume, good signs for the Bulls, volume this morning was the smallest during this run up, meaning, not so much buyers and not so much sellers. fundies still intact. Or sell some profits, especially if you are 100% up. Foreign buyer ATR bought it at 1.39 to 1.41.
Just do not forget your stops.
From American Candle sticker "A bearish reversal is more possible if there is heavy volume on the second real body or if the second day of the Bearish Engulfing Pattern engulfs more than one real body."
Monday, January 17, 2011
Danger Signals
Citi Bank. From my point of view, this is what danger signals look like, like a water falls. ( Left of the chart )
Danger signals is not 100% sure, but it is my basis to exit positions, I just re-enter it if it is a false signal, like what happen to LR. The light green area is the whipped area. The right side of the charts is the BUY on breakouts.
If you ignored danger signal like this stock, you need 100% run up in order for you to break even today which is 1 in a thousand chance for it to happen. Most stocks with foreign buying has second chance exit. In my opinion, it is because Big funds cannot exit their large position in a single day. But if it is a Tsupitero run, I do not expect any second chance exit. Please note that Not all stock with foreign buying has a second chance exit.
Boz Spy RSI is also a very good indicator that the trend is reversing.
EUR USD Water Falls
Oh my , was not able to do my pyramiding. Have to renew my License and miss all the fun.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Beginning of the Move comparison 2
After 3 days from last post. Zoom
LR
Just do not forget your stops.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Books I Read and Follow
If you read these books, do not read it like a novel, study it, like you have a board examinations.
The first book I read was "How to trade in stocks" by Jesse Livermore, first, I read it like a novel, since it was very amusing, his life story, after a year around 2009, I re-read it again, and I have found that, Livermore was telling something, I followed it, including his record keeping. I do not know how many times I have re-read it until I believed I knew what his system was. The sitting tight, the pivot points and the time element and psychology of trading. Thus born, my 2009 Livermore quotes in AP ,AEV ,DMC ,URC ,PX ,PAX ,SCC , SECB runs, even when the Gurus were bearish.
Second interesting book was The Complete Turtle Traders and Trend Follower by Covel. In which the Green signals was derived. Psychology books "trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas is a must and so with "Trading for a Living b A. Elder.
The first book I read was "How to trade in stocks" by Jesse Livermore, first, I read it like a novel, since it was very amusing, his life story, after a year around 2009, I re-read it again, and I have found that, Livermore was telling something, I followed it, including his record keeping. I do not know how many times I have re-read it until I believed I knew what his system was. The sitting tight, the pivot points and the time element and psychology of trading. Thus born, my 2009 Livermore quotes in AP ,AEV ,DMC ,URC ,PX ,PAX ,SCC , SECB runs, even when the Gurus were bearish.
Second interesting book was The Complete Turtle Traders and Trend Follower by Covel. In which the Green signals was derived. Psychology books "trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas is a must and so with "Trading for a Living b A. Elder.
I bought this at Power Books
I bought this at Borders in Los Angeles
All these, plus market experienced and observing quietly from the best Margin Caller I have ever seen.
Friday, January 14, 2011
About Shorting P6
Shorting a market is good, but it all depends on what the market has to offer.
Problem with PSE rules shorting can only be done intra day, meaning you have to sell it before the close.
Shorting is also prohibited in the pre-open and re closed. Between 0931 to 1159 only.
With this set up, I find it high risk, especially if you have large positions. Just for coffee positions is not a problem, ( No need to brag about them either)
Example. You shorted xyx at 1.36 for 1M around 1135 AM as one poster in FM said.
and at 1150 the tapes said
Bid Offer
1.36 1M 1.37 100,000
1.35 1M 1.38 10,000
1.34 1M 1.39 5,000
1 million cannot be adsorb by the market, so what will happen, the price will shoot up at the close due to short covering. That is why someone commented, when the ticker stops, the price was 1.30 and when it resumed after the market has closed it was 1.40.
Problem with PSE rules shorting can only be done intra day, meaning you have to sell it before the close.
Shorting is also prohibited in the pre-open and re closed. Between 0931 to 1159 only.
With this set up, I find it high risk, especially if you have large positions. Just for coffee positions is not a problem, ( No need to brag about them either)
Example. You shorted xyx at 1.36 for 1M around 1135 AM as one poster in FM said.
and at 1150 the tapes said
Bid Offer
1.36 1M 1.37 100,000
1.35 1M 1.38 10,000
1.34 1M 1.39 5,000
1 million cannot be adsorb by the market, so what will happen, the price will shoot up at the close due to short covering. That is why someone commented, when the ticker stops, the price was 1.30 and when it resumed after the market has closed it was 1.40.
In my experienced in short selling P6, my holding time is only 10 minutes and I earned about 6%.
That is real panic . Not catching tops. Since time is limited the best way to maximized profit in shorting, add the Intraday High plus low, divide it by 2, add 2 to five flucs, that is your selling price.
Compute this in your selected stock price last Friday, you will be surprise with the result. This tricks are for gamblers only.
CYBR Six 4
Just do not forget your stops.
My observation over the years. If there's a large move on significant news, either favorable or unfavorable, the stock will usually continue to move in that direction. I felt very comfortable buying the stock, even after its large price move, because the numbers were very strong. Richard Driehaus. Market Wizard.
AUD JPy Shorting 4 Aftermath
This is pure price system, No news, No hype, just the ticker and me. Same with my trading in P6, there is nothing special about it.
"If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect marketwise, don’t trust you own opinion and back your judgment until action of the market confirms your opinion because the effect marketwise may not be pronounced as you are inclined to believed its should be." Livermore
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