About Trend Follower

In trend following, entry point is no problem when there is a trend, as on the chart above I have entered a bit late in the run but still manage to gain. ( Please refer to my previous USD JPY post Live trading )

If you analyzed the price action and imagine if you have entered in the sideways trend on December 30, most probably you will get whipped.

That is why in trend following, just follow the major trend and NOT FORGET YOUR STOPS in case you are wrong.

As per Livermore quotes,"The market will tell a speculator when he is wrong, he is losing money."

When you are wrong get out and do not argue with the tape, when you are right just ride the trend and watch for danger signals.

As I mentioned before, I made Live FX as sample for trend following, because a lot taught I am a Big time market mover or have connections. No I am not " I work as a LONE hand. "

I must admit, I am bias in my picks, ( Whose not anyway)

Happy and Prosperous 2011 to All.

Happy New Year to All

We must thank The Lord For all the Graces He had given us as the year 2010 closes and May He guide us and our family to 2011. May We have a bountiful year ahead.


Wishing You All to Have a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

The Trend Follower

USD JPY Short 3

hein

35 pips up, increased stops.

USD JPY Short 2

 2

after few hours, 27 pips up. Stops adjust near to entry point,to protect capital.

This is what trend following is all about, no fear in entering at any point of a pronounce trend which at the moment is down trend. ( See previous post )

USD JPY Short

Was very concentrated with EUR USD and miss the USD JPY downtrend. Anyway entered some short position and see what the market tells me, red line is the stops.

From Bloomberg " The dollar fell against all of its major counterparts as signs of U.S. economic recovery spurred demand for higher-yielding assets, including stocks"

LND 5

Another green signal, just do not forget your stops,

PCOR Pamaskong Christmas Order Regalo Pa

Another Green Signal, Just do not forget your stops. Happy New Year!!!!

Forex Trading Tape Reading

As I have mentioned it has different trends in Philippines time and US time.

Quote " I adjusted my stops, so It woud not get hit, when, markets are not active like morning time in Ph. it goes counter to the trend, when trading hour is almost open like 8PM Ph. time goes to its original trend."

PXXXXXXXXXX run 3

 

PX is the most complicated chart to analyzed. It can be cup and handle, it can be inverse H&S, but with two heads. :-) or simply a bullish pennant. It was once an emotional stock a year ago, so trade with cautioned.

But according to Investopedia, I quote "Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature."

BEL rinnnnnnnngggggggggg 4

BEL failed to continue with tatsuki GAP, but as I have mentioned, Like the 2nd Pole failed tatsuki gap formed instead a bullish pennant, I prefer that it will form a third bullish pennant. Just do not forget your stops.

LND 4, In the Beginning

Looks Like PCOR all over again, Just do not forget your stops.

Compare Chart below when I first posted PCOR.

EUR USD Long 5 Money Never Sleeps

110 pips up and the beat goes on...

LND 3

Just another green signal, just do not forget your stops

EUR USD Long 4 Money Never Sleeps

100 pip ups

EUR USD Long 3 Money Never Sleeps

EUR USD Long 2

After 3 hours 20 pips up

Long Term Trend Lines

People tend to confuse short-term volatility with long-term risk. The longer the time period, the lower the risk of holding equities. People focus too much on the short term-week-to-week and month-to-month price changes-and don't pay enough attention to the long-term potential. Richard Driehaus. Market Wizard

Eur USD Long

LND 2

Why New High is Important

In the chart above prior breakout, price was moving up and down the0 .25 to 0.5 range. from Jan 2008 to May 2009, the Price breakout from 0.5 to 0.75 on June 29, 2009 and the rest is history.

If you look at the  stock’s price action which was trading near its new high. Nobody is down with their position or nobody is losing, It is the line of least resistance. 

Disadvantage of Buying Sideways

The table shows 1 month stock prices of selected issues from 24 November to 23 December 2010. I have bought  some of these stocks during their uptrend and have some nice profit. Normally if you buy sideways, it means you are betting it will go up anytime soon, That is HOPING. It is dangerous to hope. Because you are telling the market what to do. You have no control over that.

If you catch tops and bottom, possible  to earn, but how would you know it is the top or the bottom.

So, it is very familiar to hear from a trader story, " I have bought that at one peso and held it for a year without any paper profit, when I get tired of waiting, I sold, then it suddenly shoot up" 

Sounds Familiar?

" Many traders are puzzled why markets always seem to reverse immediately

after they dump their losing position. This happens because crowd

members are gripped by the same fear-and everybody dumps at the same

time. Once the fit of selling has ended, the market has nowhere to go but up.

Optimism returns to the marketplace, and the crowd feels greedy and goes

on a new buying binge. . A. Elder` "     

Color of Money

http://turtlecapital.wordpress.com/

10,000 Visitors

My blog only a month and a half and got 10,000 hits on Christmas Day.

DJIA

Merry Christmas to All

Buy up or Dips

                 Low       Computed entry as posted above.

Nov 4    -  2.48      2.50

Nov 5    -  2.52      2.63

Nov 8    -  2.95      3.0    

Nov 19  -  2.96      3.01

Nov. 25 -  3.07      3.26

Dec 3    -  3.7        3.77

Dec 17  -  3.83      3.88

My computed entry is base on Fibonacci which is quiet accurate for catching tops and bottom.

If you notice, almost 95% of it did not get hit. Meaning is it hard to buy. If it is hard to buy, interested traders are force to buy at higher prices.

Thats is why if you like to buy the dips, should be 2 of more flucs above the computed price, since it is very crowded in that area.

I will not show you an example if your dips get filled the stock is weak, because somebody might say I am selective. Everybody love to maixmize profit that is why 95% of traders lose. No need for samples.

There is always an exceptional trader who can buy the dips almost all the time, but they are exceptional breed, 1 in a thousand.

BEL ringggggggggggg 3

Bel  created a Bullish Upside Tasuki Gap continuation pattern, Please noted the high volume in the first and second and third poles. The 2nd Pennant candles is the same as the developing third pennant candles.

This Bullish Upside Tasuki Gap Pattern is a rare formation.

Just do not forget your stops.

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs65.asp

The pattern is characterized by two long white candlesticks with a gap upward between them during an uptrend. However the pattern also shows a black candlestick on the third day partially closing the gap between the first two. The black candlestick is the result of temporary profit taking. We expect the trend to continue upward following the direction of the upward gap.

Recognition Criteria:

1. Market is characterized by uptrend.

2. We see two long white candlesticks with a gap between them.

3. Then we see black candlestick on the third day that opens within the body of the second day.

4. The third day candlestick closes into the gap but does not fully close the gap.

 Since the gap is not filled or closed, the previous upward trend must continue.

LND

The first green signal of LND appeared last Dec 21, unfortunately, I was not able to enter. Anyway, a trend follower uses his edge in trading, so when I see a Green signal again, I buy, I bought it at 1.16, at the closed, why? The up trend is still intact and what are green signals for? If it fails, I just simply sell.

Trading simple but not easy, because traders fear of losing, how can you win if you do not accept losing.

Like BEL, as I have posted, kept giving a Green signal, I just kept on ignoring it and finally bought it and you see, it gave me paper profit. Still holding my BEL. down 3.3 % yesterday.

DJIA

EUR USD 5

the 5 second spike was the top, anyway my stops was hit for a profit. Was out for a party and was expectin to short aroun 8PM, I am late 40pips from the top. anyway entered short positions at 1.31

EUR USD 4

you see that shoot up 20 pips in five seconds, increase my stops to protect 40 pips gain

EUR USD 3

Since I can time the swing,  decided to sell my short positions and bought almost at the bottom.

Let us see what will happen before 5pm local time, maybe another 90 pips then will be in the short side again.

No need to look over it if you have trailing stops.

As I posted earlier "  markets are not active like morning time in Ph. it goes counter to the trend, when trading hour is almost open like 8PM Ph. time goes to its original trend.

December 22, 2010 3:52 AM "

And it did.

PXXXXXXXXXX run 2

Another PX green

LCB Second Green Signal

Another greennnnnnnnn signal. Just do not forget your stops.

BEL rinnnnnnnngggggggggg 3

Just another green signal. Do not forget your stops...

DJIA Breakout

Looks like a breakout in 10 year chart

Human Nature

It is human nature to take profit from a winner quickly on the assumption that it wont last for long, but stick with a loser in the futile hope it will bounce back. 

Short Eur USD

Cannot hold my promise, saw this opportunity H&S, now up 80 pips,  if it goes down to May low,

that is 1500 pips. stops at 1.32. 

It is also interesting to note most major price moves occurs 9PM Philippine time.

Wala ng tulugan ito, hapon na lang, 9PM FX, early morning Djia, umaga P6. :-)

PCOR Pre- Christmas Order 7

Give Love on Christmas Day... My lovely PCOR, just do not forget your stops.

BEL ringggggggggggg 2

Withe the current breakout of BEL, wow, this is REAL Christmas..... Just do not forget your stops.

LCB Green Signal

First Time I saw LCB green signal, to be honest with you, I have bought it the other day, just a hunch, nothing more. And I was surprised to see a green signal this morning. Just do not forget your stops, because a lot of traders are very emotional on this issue. When emotion kicks in, spike is always in an extreme, either up or down.

PCOR vs Other picks

One thing I like with PCOR holders, they do not shoot their own foot, unlike BEL, just look at the pre opening bids.

They post large offer volume than the bid volume, I think they are eager to exit since they are margin
calls. That is the problem if you use your margin when trading, at the end of the day, you get barat bids.

Forex Trading

Have been making bad calls in Forex Market, and I have been violating my rules. I am 1% down.

Have to stop it for awhile, was applying trend following strategy in Forex market but failed. Have to watch for major moves, and since it is almost the end of the year, I do not see any major moves in currency, since most economic managers are in vacation mode, so I believed currencies would be side ways. Meaning, maximum 50 pips gain only, this is for day traders. Trend followers want to catch big moves like the chart below, 4000 pips not 20 or 50 pips.

Short EUR USD

One thing good if you buy when a trend developes, waiting time is less, unlike my gbp chf which i was gambling unitl now sideways

PCOR Pre- Christmas Order 6

Another Green Signal

Jingle Bells 2

First green signal Nov 5,  33M
2nd Green signal Nov  8 volume total 23M
4th Signal Nov 25,  27M volume
5th signal Dec 3,  31M volume
Last Friday 27M volume

This is real Christmas

Trend Follower 2009 Performance review 2

Title was wrong, should have been 2009 entries to the max or paper profits of 2009.

Just like my 2010 current picks, uptrend still intact and still paper profits

Trend Follower 2009 Performance review

Buy anywhere and used stops like 8% . Enter at 5.0 and 8% stops at 4.2, is it a high risk???

Trend follwer does not think so, low risk and unlimited gains, just increase your trailing stops to protect your gain, better increase your stops to 10%, so you cannot be whipped.

Can you loose with this chart??

or this chart??? Maybe whipped if you bottom fish and day trade, because it is very choppy.

Sample for wrong danger signal. Very choppy chart.

PCOR Pre- Christmas Order 5

The Bullish Pennant.Bullish pennants typically appear in the middle of large rallies or immediately after a stock has broken out of a basing period.

Bullish breakouts should be accompanied by a significant increase in volume. Use appropriate stops if this is not seen.

The price action prior to the pennant formation can be used as a guide in predicting the price movement upon breakout. So, for a bullish pennant in an uptrend to truly possess great potential, it must have been preceded by a significant move (i.e. if the movement into the pattern was quick and full of energy, the rally after the breakout most likely will be quick and full of energy).

The expected price movement upon breakout is approximately equal to the distance of the move into the pattern.

http://indo.mt5.com/showthread.php?421-%DB%A9-%DB%9E-%DB%A9-Chart-Patterns-%DB%A9-%DB%9E-%DB%A9&p=17852&viewfull=1#post17852

GBF CHF Long 2

It is really bad if you violate your rules, entry down by less than 1% from entry, stops not yet hit, trend following is about big following big momentum or probably I am out of sync. Let's see next week.

Anyway, Back to where we started. Stops not hit, still intact. -0.1 paper loss